Detroit Tigers Offseason - What The Hell Is Going On?

This story was originally posted as the first on my new blog "Tigers Baseball Outsider"

This has been a very confusing off season to say the least.

And it started that day in late September 2009 when once beloved Maglio Ordonez achieved enough at bats to trigger the option on a huge contract bonus of thirty three million of Tiger owner Mike Ilitch's hard earned dollars for the 2010 season.

After a lackluster three quarters of the 2009 season.

And even though Mags finished 2009 with a flourish, the Tigers finished 2009 with a flop.

I still shiver when I think of those last two games of the regular season. So I won't relive them for you. You remember them too.

Or that single game playoff against the Minnesota Twinkies in the dome from hell.

Have they torn that damn thing down yet?

And then the dominos – the repercussions of Mags contract option – started the dominos toppling.

We bid farewell to Placido Polanco as the stalwart and steadfast rock of the infield and master of the clutch hit was refused arbitration and allowed to move on to Phillidelphia.

And if that weren't unthinkable enough – Curtis Granderson – beloved star center fielder and all-around-good-guy destined to be the face of the franchise - is traded to the Yankees.

A kick in the groin to Tiger fans.

"The money just wasn't there to keep those guys", we are told.

Two new young minor leaguers are received for Granderson – Austin Jackson – a centerfielder that the Sporting News projected to be the rookie of the year in 2010, and Max Scherzer - a reasonable pitcher at best.

Scott Sizemore was decided to be brought up from AAA Toledo – only to break a bone in his ankle in an Arizona fall league game. He is still slated as I know it to be Placido's second base placebo replacement.

"Okay", we all thought, "This Mags contract option is costing us our big names and most beloved players … but we can carry on – there's no money and the team is moving into a younger state of mind."

That's when they signed Jose Valverde – a quality closer (to fill the vacancy of rollercoaster Tiger closer Fernando Rodney – who was also not offered arbitration) from Houston – for fourteen million dollars.

I thought Ilitch was pinching pennies this year?

I thought that's why we lost Granderson … and Polanco?

What the ….

Now, as I write this, the rumor mill is spewing the sour news that the Tigers are on the verge of signing Johnny "Curtis Granderson took my job" Damon to a two year fourteen million dollar contract also.

What is it with two years and fourteen million dollars contracts?

This leaves us to question why then did we lose Granderson and Polanco?

It couldn't have been the money?

It must have been a determination to go in a different direction. Not necessarily a young direction. Just in a direction without Granderson and Polanco?

Yet still we have Carlos Guillen in left? He doesn't want to play left field any more than Inge wanted to catch?

And we still have Brandon Inge – easily tied with Granderson and ace Justin Verlander as the most favourite Tigers.

And we still have Mags – without his head of curls – that once lopped off – reduced him to a mere shadow of his former power-hitting self – and the root of what we all thought the problem was.

We kept the weakest links on the roster – and we got rid of our stability leaders?

Oh, I know – only the players who flourished last season have trade value. But we got nothing for Placido, and we got unproven hopes in Austin Jackson for Curtis?

It just doesn't make sense. Not from the outside. Not from where I sit.

But the good news is that the Tigers are still in the American League Central Division. The weakest division in all of Major League Baseball.

So the Tigers still have a shot.

An outsiders shot … but a shot.

No matter my confusion, or disappointment, or frustration in trying to understand the void in rationale of this offseason, I will still root for those who wear the old English D. I will still listen to and watch every pitch on the radio or TV. I will still pump my fist when we win a close one, or utter profanities should we fail to pull one out in the bottom of the ninth with two men on and no outs.

Just like last year … when we led the AL Central from May 10^th to the single game playoff in that disgusting dome.

We still have a shot.

And remember … we weren't supposed to be any good at all in 2006.

And for certain … the Tigers aren't supposed to be anygood in 2010.

So we got a pretty good shot.

Albeit and outside one.

Could it be? The Detroit Tigers Are Six Games Up?

Could it be?

I seem to have to keep looking at my newspaper this morning.

The sports section. The Major League Baseball standings tucked in the top left corner of the second page of the sports section.

There, in black and white – with the authority of an official news organization behind – sits the standings of the American League Central.

My beloved Detroit Tigers are leading the American League Central division by six games.

Holy mackerel!

I have watched every game on television or listened to every game on the radio. So I don't know why I am in such a state of disbelief. Joyous disbelief, but disbelief all the same.

Pat Caputo is on the radio again this morning urging people to finally believe in this team. With a team leading their division by six with twenty seven left to play. The magic number now set to twenty two games – combinations of Tigers Wins – or losses of Minnesota and Chicago. Pat can't understand why Tiger fans have been hesitant to believe the Tigers will win the American League Central pennant and have a spot in the 2009 playoffs.

Well, to start with, the Tigers were supposed to be a poor team this year – chosen by the pundits of national sports to finish near the bottom of the division. But we Tiger fans knew the boys wearing the old English D were not as bad as they appeared to be last year – when they did finish in the basement after being picked by those same national media pundits to win the World Series.

We knew our starting pitching rotation would not stink this year like they did last year. We knew guys like Polanco, Inge, Guillen, and Thames would step up to fill the shoes of game-by-game heros when our superstars like Cabrera, Ordonez, Granderson, and Verlander faltered. And we knew that the Tigers farm system was deep enough to supply great temporary support by sending up newcomers like Raburn, Thomas, and Avila would step into roles and play significant parts – before we even knew their names.

But the problem was the Tigers couldn't win on the road.

Their road record was atrocious until the last two away game series. They hadn't won a road series since May, until taking the Angels in Anaheim last week and know their current series with the Tampa Bay Rays this weekend. The final game of that series about to start in a few minutes.

But while the Tigers played poorly on the road, the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox played worse.

Nobody beats Tampa Bay at Tropicana field.

But the Tigers have. And came from behind to do so.

The bats that were quiet are now awake.

The players that were slumping in clutch situations are now getting key hits. The pitching – when failing – has received enough run support to surpass the opposition. The defense has been tighter – and the Tigers Catchers – Laird and Avila – have been surpising in their ability to handcuff base runners by throwing laser accurate ropes to second – to the perfect spots where the runners slide into waiting gloves of Polanco, Everette, and Santiago.

A new confidence has arisen from the Tigers when they sit in the visiting dugouts.

If they score first they taunt the opposition to catch them if they can. If they fall behind in the course of a game, they charge back with determination and conviction to take the lead in the eighth or ninth innings.

And Tigers closer Fernando Rodney gives you tingles of fear comparable to a bungee jump made at a county fair – walking men or giving up hits to allow the tying run coming to the plate – only to get the poor bastard to swing at strike three and get out of the self-imposed jam. Rodney has scared us to death with every save opportunity appearance – but the statics show that in thirty something such opportunities – he has only let one slip through his split fingers.

But I am superstitious when it comes to baseball. I believe in jinxes.

And so that is why I still hesitate to declare decisively as Pat Caputo insists – that the Tigers will win the AL Central division.

Six game leads seem like a lot. Especially in September.

But there is a very scary road trip coming up – to visit both Minnesota and Chicago – at fields they don't typically do well in … so I reserve my right to hedge my complete and utter faith in the Tigers winning the pennant. Six games can dwindle quickly – especially if Minnesota and Chicago get hot too.

So I am still nervous. That's what makes a true pennant race like this one so exciting. I am hopeful – and trying desperately to be faithful. But I don't yet know for sure where things will sit when the fat lady sings in the first week of October.

I do know this. I will be at that final regular season game in October – against the White Sox. And whether it is a game of formality to simply cheer the Tigers into the post season – or whether it comes down to that final game to win our way into the post season – I don't know.

But it will be a great day that day.

Perhaps I will venture up to the press box to track down Caputo – and shake his hand – and share with him how truly great this season has been – pretending to be a pizza delivery guy – or a writer for the Schwartzville Times – Gazette – and simply point a thumbs up at him as he keys in his thoughts on the season.

Who knows.

But it has been a terrific ride that I hope continues strong for another twenty seven game days.

And I can honestly state that I am now a true believer – with only the fear that I am jinxing my beloved Detroit Tigers.

Could it be?

Yes it could.

Detroit Tigers – There’s A Big Storm Brewing

Hold on to your hats Tiger fans!

Or at least turn them inside out and wear them as rally caps.

There's a big storm brewing! It's already on the radar screen.

Last night the Tigers took the first game of a six game home stand with the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins by coming from five runs back and tying the game in the fifth – then winning the game with a two out two strike blast by Clete Thomas into the bushes in center field.

It was a bomb.

As well, Tiger's ace Justin Verlander did not let a five run first inning phase him. He pitched lights out ball the next seven innings getting better with each pitch he threw. It was that beautiful Verlander poise and presence coming through yet again.

But this time the Tigers offense woke up.

Leading the way was superstar Miguel Cabrera – who while he has big numbers and hitting .334 – had been very quite in clutch situations with men in scoring position – knocked in three RBIs with a big clutch double and the game tying homerun.

To recap - the Tigers came back and caught the Orioles in the fifth. And won it with a walk off homer in the ninth.

That was an exciting game – and many things that Tiger fans have been waiting to see finally appeared.

But it was a home game. In Comerica Park. The Tigers usually win at home.

I'm not trying to put a damper on last night's elation. Please hear me out. I'm just trying to be objective.

The Tigers have a chance in the next few weeks to widen the gap between them and the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins. They might expand their lead by as many as four games ahead of their Central Division rivals.

But, like I said already, there is a big storm brewing!

As I look at the Tigers long range weather forecast, I can see a tropical storm brewing over the American Midwest. And it looks like it could build into a category five hurricane. The conditions look like they could be just right for this monstrous storm to hit the Tigers right where they are weakest – weak as a West New Orleans levy of sandbags – when the Tigers play away games.

The Tigers will need a lot more sandbags to weather this storm. Let me explain:

The Tigers record at home at Comerica Park is 32 wins and 16 losses.

The Tigers record when they are away from Comerica Park is 23 wins and 33 losses.

The Tigers stink on the road.

But luckily so do most of the other teams in the American League.

So what is this storm brewing that has me so worried?

It's a ten game road trip – starting on the 18^th of September and ending on the 27^th of September. During that trip, the Tigers will play three games in Minnesota (a park where they have little luck), four games in Cleveland (who just took two out of three from Detroit in Cleveland last weekend), and then the final three against the Chicago White Sox at what should be called New Cominsky Park.

The Tigers record on the road stinks. Mainly because their offense stagnites - the air in the eye of a storm. They cannot score runs on the road.

It is possible that the Tigers could lose six to eight of those games. Such a result would possibly be enough to sink the Tigers 2009 chances. Drowned by the lack of offense they are known for on the road this season.

As I look at the remaining schedule of the Tigers, White Sox and Twins in 2009 - if current trends continue - I see the Tigers being even with Chicago by the time the first pitch of that September 25^th weekend series begins. Games in that horrible dome in Minneapolis and Cleveland's Progressive field will erode at least two games of what I expect to be a three game lead.

Two of the three sandbags will be blown off the Tigers soft away game levy, leaving a single sandbag or two to ride out the three game hurricane of games at Chicago.

Chicago is the windy city.

And some would try to say that Detroit is No-Mo-Town now. This would be the worst possible outcome if the Tigers lose eight out of ten on that road trip.

Now there are some elements that entered into the radar that may slightly change this American League Central weather patterns development over the last week.

The Tigers have picked up some pitching to make their rotation even stronger, acquiring Jarrod Washburn from Seattle in return for Lucas French and a Minor League rising star Mauricio Robles.

Washburn was having an above average year with Seattle – with an 8 win 6 loss record – throwing 79 strikeouts and 33 walks in 133 innings. How will he do as a Tiger? Tonight will be his first outing clad in the old English D. And his first start will be in Comerica – after the elation of a great win last night. So fingers are crossed that Washburn starts off strong as a Tiger.

But as well, Chicago has strengthened their pitching, picking up Jake Peavy from San Diego. Peavy is considered to around the same barometer readings with the Tigers Verlander, Anderson, and now Washburn. The white Sox already have perfect game pitcher Mark Burhle in their rotation.

Do the Tigers Verlander and Jackson combined outweigh the dominance of Mark Burhle? Are Washburn and Peavy simply going to cancel each other out? It will be very interesting and exciting to see.

But there is good news for us Tiger fans in all of this. After what promises to be the most exciting road trip of the season during that last half of September, the Tigers return home – to trusty and faithful Comerica Park. The Tigers safe harbor from the storm.

And who is coming to play those final six games of the 2009 season in the Tigers safe harbor? Who else.

The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox.

This is going to be one wild storm during the last four weeks of the American League Central Pennant race my friends. And if I were you, I would get tickets to all six of the final home stand games.

Because if the Tigers can ride out the hurricane brewing for the end of September, that first week in October will be the most amazing games played yet at Comerica park.

Can the Tigers ride that fast approaching storm? Will they have stashed away enough wins to survive the expected offensive power outage they seem to experience during road trips?

But I think - like 2006 - we need as big a lead built right now to survive that final onslaught.

In 2006 we had the luxury of being in the Wildcard division. We sat in August and September and helplessly watched the water rise high enough to erode the Tigers once ten game lead.

Is the 2009 version of the Tigers stronger than the 2006 version? It's certainly different. But this year I think the Tigers pitching is actually better than in 2006.

We got the pitching to slow down the storm - but we need these bats of this potentially explosive offense to get better on the road.

2009 has the potential to be one of the most exciting finishes of Tiger baseball history.

Hang onto your hats Tiger fans, because there is a big storm heading our way.

How Will The Detroit Tigers Do In the Second Half of 2009

It's the All Star break.

The halfway point. The 2009 Major League Baseball season is half over.

And this year – 2009 – just like 2006 and 2007 – my beloved Detroit Tigers are in first place. They a three and a half game lead over the Chicago White Sox, and a four game lead over the Minnesota Twins.

So for this brief break in the season play, it's nice to sit and cherish the moment – but not for too long, both Chicago and Minnesota could pass by the Tigers in a single week.

The Tigers have the schedule on their side for the second half of 2009, but unless the bullpen gets it done, and the bats wake up more often, it will be a very close race right up to the final game in October.

And baseball is a funny game. Any team can win on any given day.

The Tigers as a Team

Q: The Tigers are winning the American League Central, how good are they really doing?

It is true that the American League Central Division is the weakest division in baseball. The Tigers win / loss average right now is .552. If they were in the American League East, they would be in third place behind Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees. In the American League West they would be behind the L.A. Angels (of Anaheim) and tied in second place with the Texas Rangers.

So in the American League, the Tigers are tied with Texas as the fourth best team. If they were in the National League, they would be the fourth best team in the National League.

In all of the Major Leagues, the Tigers would be tied for seventh place – again with the Texas Rangers.

The good news is that if they hold on and win the Central Division, they go to the playoffs – and anything can happen in the playoffs.

The bad news is that if they slip even to second place – surpassed by with Chicago or Minnesota – they will likely be out of play offs – because most likely the wild card team will be from the AL Easter division – and New York and Tampa Bay are fighting it out for that spot at the moment.

So – the Tigers are first in the AL Central – but tied for fourth in the American league, and tied for seventh overall in the Major Leagues.

Q: Is that good?

Considering four teams from the American League, and four teams from the National League – eight teams in total – go to the playoffs – so far the Tigers are making the cut. But they are on the outer edge.

Q: Well, are the Tigers any good?

One of the Tiger's most famous managers, Sparky Anderson, used to say he couldn't judge how good his ball team was until they had played forty games. Give a season consists of one hundred and sixty two games, that's nearly the whole first quarter of the season. But here we sit at the half way point. The Tigers of played eighty seven – six games past the halfway mark.

So the second half of the season is actually already under way, and the Tigers have won five of those six games. But those games were played against Kansas City and Cleveland, the two bottom feeders of the AL Central.

So at the halfway mark, I still cannot tell if my Detroit Tigers, leaders of the American League Central, are any good.

Q: How the Tigers stack up against their American League Rivals?

To me, the proof of how good the Tigers have been is how they have played against the four teams ahead of them in the American League. The Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and the Rangers (whom they are tied with). How did the Tigers fare against these teams?

• The Tigers were swept by Boston Red Sox – losing all three games. So that's not good.
  


• The Tigers won one game and lost two to the Yankees – so that's not so good either.
  


• The Tigers won three against the Angels (of Anaheim) and lost three – so that's not good or bad. Home field advantage is the key when these two teams face each other.
  


• The Tigers have won all six games they played against the Rangers – two sweeps. So that is very good. I would say that even though their record shows them tied with the Rangers, the Tigers are the better team.
  

So it sounds like the Tigers are clearly the fourth best team in the American League.

But what about against those other teams in their Division? The Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins? It's more important that they can beat those guys, right?

Well, kind of. Let's see.

Detroit has won four and lost two to the White Sox. And the Tigers have won two and lost four to the Twins. Yet the White Sox are in second place and the Twins are in third place.

In the American League Central, the Minnesota Twins are the team the Tigers have to watch out for - and play their best against. They have to be up for games against Minnesota.

The only conclusion I can make from these team win loss records is that it is more important how the schedule falls. Who you play more often and when?

Any team can beat any other team on any given night.

That's baseball.

So how do the Tigers schedule look for the next half of the season?

• The Tigers play better at home – at Comerica Park. Their winning percentage at home is quite high.


• They play six games against the White Sox at home, and only three in Chicago.


• They play seven games at home against the Twins, and only three games in Minnesota. These will be very important games - at the end of a long season.


• The last seven games of the Tigers schedule are against Minnesota and Chicago in Detroit at Comerica Park.

So that sounds very promising.

The Tigers Roster

Q: How is Manager Jim Leyland doing?

In my opinion, Jim Leyland - the Skip - has done a very good job in the first half. He has dealt with both expected and unexepected circumstances smoothly. He has made moves to pull runs out of no where, double switching, pinch hitting, and positional changes that have pulled the Tigers through some close games. Some would debate that Leyland has left the odd pitcher in too long, or pulled a pitcher too early, but that - I think - is pure speculation.

Overall I would give Jim Leyland a solid A for the first half of 2009. His intuition and sage like wisdom will again be key in the second half of the season. But the Skip has a habbit of easing up in the second half.

Q: Let's talk about the Tigers players

Things can change very quickly. This is simply assuming the current trends will hold, and they likely will change a bit. Trades will be made in the next several weeks. Contending teams will try to bolters their rosters with pieces they are missing – trading with teams likely out of contention and that need to change direction or ease their payolls.

It would be safe to assume that both Minnesota and Chicago will make a deal in their bid to catch the Tigers. Who knows what those deals will be?

The Tigers also need to make a couple of trades. Who knows if anything will be available though. Their payroll is quite high - half of it spent on the stars that are not performing. So any deal the Tigers would make would likely be minor moves aimed at their weaknesses.

Maglio Ordonez

Tigers superstar Maglio Ordenez is not playing very well at all. Mags has a career average of .310. He is hitting .260 this year. He has never been an outstanding right fielder. He has a strange contract that states if he reaches a certain amount of games played for the Tigers this year, he earns an automatic extension and another 33 million dollars.

The expectation is that Mags has to go. I'm sorry to say that. His quality is still in the upper echelon of baseball, but that damned contract paints the Tigers into a corner that they must … well .. get out of.

My own feeling about Maglio – for what little it's worth - is that a controversy he was caught in the middle of – where he publically supported an unpopular Venezuelan president caused his fellow Venezuelan fans to boo him harshly through this springs World Baseball Classic appearances. Mags batted around .220 in those exhibitions, and that slump carried well into this season. I think that hurt Maglio emotionally, and is a big part of the reason for his slump.

I would hate to see Mags traded to a team and have him come back to beat us, But I also appreciate the fact that his numbers this season do not warrant a 30 million dollar contract extension.

Tigers Pitching

Q: The Tigers have one of the best starting rotations in baseball?

As well, the Tigers starting pitching has been their strongest weapon. Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson have been spectacular so far. So has rookie phenom Rick Porcello. The fourth starter Armondo Gallarraga has had a bumpier start than his break out rookie season last year, but he could step it up in the second half. Some would say Gallarraga's 2008 break out year was a abnormally high blip - and that in 2009 he has come back down to his expected level. I only hope they are wrong.

The fifth starter, Dontrelle Willis has been a dud since joining the Tigers in 2008. His ERA is 7.49. And so the Tigers basically are stuck with a four man rotation. But now with the rising of Lucas French up from the minor league system – a no decision in his first start – a sixteen inning marathon in Minnesota loss, and a brilliant start in Kansas City that made people take notice - the Tigers might think they now have a five man rotation again.

French will start the first game back from the All Star break against the New York Yankees - in the new Yankee Stadium - a field already known to be a hitters paradise. This may be the best test of French's mettle - and we will know a lot more about French after that start.

Time will tell. But it's unlikely any pitching trades will occur. Perhaps the dismissal of Dontrelle Willis.

Q: Fernando Rodney has never blown a save this year.

The Tigers bullpen has been as much to blame for Tiger losses as the often quiet bats of an explosive Tigers Offense. Fernando Rodney has stepped in to assume the role of closer – and has a perfect save record of 19 – 0, with an ERA of 3.92. That ERA is a bit high for a perfect save record. The news is that in Save situations – Rodney has given up less runs than the Tigers explosive runs have provided as a lead. Every outing is a roller coaster ride, and his record in non-save starts is rather abysmal.

In short, Rodney can get the job done to close a game out when the Tigers are leading into the ninth inning, but he is unlikely to hold the opposition off from scoring to give the Tigers a chance to catch up.

Solution? Only use Rodney in true save situations.

Q: How bad is the Tigers bullpen? That's what everyone nationally wants to know.

Our bullpen needs help.

The only problem is that every team hordes their quality bullpen staff. To acquire from another team means paying costly with talent you already have. The hope is that Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, and Fu – Te Ni can raise to the quality Tigers management expect of them.

Bobby Seay, Freddy Dolsi, and Brandon Lyon – on the other hand – have done well to hold up their end of the bullpen, and it is critical they maintain those levels.

So I do not expect to see any big trades for pitching coming, just some shuffling and perhaps a release or minor league repositioning or two.

Conclusion

Q: So Fred, sum this all up – what is your conclusion?

Well, if our quality starters – Cabrera, Laird and Inge can maintain their above normal paces this year, and Granderson, Anderson, Polanco, and Ordonez can raise their games to where they should be – the Tigers regular players will be competitive with any team in the Majors.

As well, if the players trying to stay in the majors from the minor leagues – Raburn, Thomas, Kelly (who might pop back up from Toledo) – can continue to contribute the way they have in the first half of the season, the Tigers chances grow even higher. These guys have played extremely well for the Tigers while regarded as 4A (AAAA) players – too god for the minor leagues but not quite major league material. And this has been a big reason (in my opinion) for the Tigers first half success.

As well, if Verlander and Jackson stay hot and healthy, and Luke French does not get found out, our starting rotation will be among baseballs very best.

But the starters can only be expected to get you six or seven innings in a game. The Tigers bullpen is the key to the second half. If Rodney continues getting saves – in his own roller coaster fashion that would make Todd Jones look dependable – then the Tigers can continue to win games with a lead into the ninth.

But if Joel Zumaya, Zach Minor, and Ryan Perry don't step upon the middle relief roles – the Tigers explosive bats get cancelled very quickly.

But the Tigers have the advantage of the smartest Manager in the American League Central in Jim Leyland. And that again will be worth a couple of close game wins.

I think the key to the second half of the Detroit Tigers second half of the 2009 season is the bullpen, and the often quiet bats of the offense to wake up a bit. There will be something done with Maglio Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis, and most likely a couple of our super 4A role contributors – but who and what that will bring to the Tigers is a crap shoot.

Who knows.

The Tigers have the schedule on their side for the second half of 2009, but unless the bullpen gets it done, and the bats wake up more often, it will be a very very close race right up to the final game in October.

And baseball is a funny game. Any team can win on any given day.